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Anticipation is building as spectators eagerly await the Republican National Committee’s first sanctioned 2024 debate in August. Many envision a fiery clash between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, while others hope for a confrontational display akin to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s explosive exchange with Senator Marco Rubio in 2016.
However, there is a possibility that these highly anticipated matchups may not come to fruition.
The RNC recently unveiled the qualifying criteria for the upcoming debate on August 23. Although it is still early to determine which candidates will make the stage, the requirements based on party loyalty, polling performance, and fundraising thresholds raise numerous questions about several prominent contenders.
The field is already sizable and poised to expand further next week, with expected entries from Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and Doug Burgum. These additions would bring the total number of major candidates with federal or statewide experience to eight. Additionally, a handful of other Republicans who have never held elected office are investing substantial amounts in self-funded TV ads, elevating the number of viable contenders to almost double digits.
With a growing field, there is an increased likelihood of having too many candidates to fit on a single debate stage. The RNC acknowledged this possibility and mentioned the potential for a second debate on the following night to accommodate additional participants, although specific criteria for dividing the field were not provided.
However, the RNC’s requirements are also more stringent than in previous years, making it possible that only a few candidates will qualify for the stage. Even candidates with extensive political backgrounds who are struggling to gain traction in the polls could find themselves excluded.
One significant question revolves around Donald Trump’s potential participation. The RNC stipulates that all participants must pledge to support the party’s eventual nominee, which may dissuade Trump from joining the debate. Trump opted out of televised debates in both the 2016 and 2020 election cycles.
The debates hold significant viewership, with the first debate in 2015 attracting a staggering 24 million viewers, thanks in part to its airing on Fox News Channel. A larger field of candidates could potentially benefit the frontrunner, Trump, who enjoys a loyal following after dominating GOP politics for eight years.
While the qualifying polls are still at least a month away, it is never too early to speculate on which candidates are likely to make the cut and who may find themselves on the outside looking in when Republicans convene in Milwaukee later this summer. The stage is set for a captivating and highly competitive primary race as the party seeks its nominee for the 2024 presidential election.