How did this happen?
In the latest polling data from Quinnipiac University, President Biden maintains a steady lead over former President Trump, positioning him as the frontrunner for the Democratic Party in a potential rematch come November.
According to the poll released on Wednesday, 49 percent of registered voters indicated their support for Biden, contrasting with 45 percent who favored Trump. While Biden’s lead has slightly narrowed since January, when he garnered 50 percent against Trump’s 44 percent, he continues to hold a firm advantage.
However, among independent voters— a pivotal demographic for the upcoming election—Biden’s lead appears more tenuous. Approximately 44 percent of independents expressed their preference for Biden, while 42 percent leaned towards Trump, underscoring the importance of securing support beyond partisan lines.
Within party lines, the survey revealed high levels of allegiance, with 93 percent of Democrats backing Biden and 91 percent of Republicans rallying behind Trump.
In a scenario that included independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, alongside Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Biden maintained a narrow lead with 38 percent against Trump’s 37 percent.
Aggregating various polls, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ data suggests a marginal lead of 2.7 percentage points for Trump over Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
The Quinnipiac University poll also delved into perceptions of age and fitness among voters. Despite concerns about his age, with 67 percent considering the 81-year-old Biden too old for another term, respondents were more divided on Trump’s age, with 57 percent deeming the 77-year-old fit for another presidency.
Assessments of physical and mental fitness presented a mixed picture. Only 35 percent believed Biden possessed the physical fitness for another term, while 34 percent were confident in his mental acuity. Conversely, 60 percent believed Trump had the physical fitness, and 48 percent perceived his mental fitness favorably for another term.
The poll, conducted from February 15 to 19, surveyed 1,421 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.