Boebert Re-Election In Danger

In Colorado’s 4th Congressional district, constituents are sending a clear signal to Representative Lauren Boebert’s campaign, as indicated by a recent poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies and shared with Newsweek.

The poll reveals a significant concern among GOP voters in the district regarding candidates who have recently relocated, with 46 percent expressing an unwillingness to support such candidates. In contrast, only 22 percent indicated they would consider voting for a newcomer, while 33 percent remained undecided.

This reluctance among Republican voters to embrace candidates new to the district poses a challenging hurdle for Boebert, who shifted to the solidly red 4th district from the more competitive 3rd district late last year, where she narrowly secured reelection in 2022 amidst a formidable challenge from Democrat Adam Frisch.

Boebert’s move to the 4th district coincides with its transition from being Republican-leaning to a more uncertain toss-up, following the retirement of Representative Ken Buck. Buck cited his party’s reluctance to accept the outcome of the 2020 election as a factor in his decision to step down.

Despite Boebert’s current lead in the Republican primary, with 32 percent of the vote according to the survey, her campaign faces challenges. Doug Kaplan, president of Kaplan Strategies, notes that Boebert’s disapproval rating among GOP voters is significant, with over 40 percent viewing her unfavorably and 45 percent questioning her character and judgment.

Kaplan suggests that unless the Republican Party unites behind a single alternative candidate, Boebert is likely to secure victory. However, the high level of voter indecision, with nearly half of the district’s voters still undecided, complicates the outlook for her campaign.

The district’s political identity, while predominantly conservative, exhibits a nuanced stance on the “MAGA” movement. Despite having favored former President Donald Trump by a considerable margin in 2020, with 55 percent of the vote, only 45 percent of respondents in the survey identified as “MAGA Republicans.” This suggests a less homogenous political landscape than anticipated.

Furthermore, while a majority expressed willingness to support Trump in the GOP presidential primary, his endorsement of Boebert may not necessarily sway all voters, as indicated by the 45 percent who stated they would be more likely to support her with his endorsement.

Conducted on February 24 among 558 registered likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent, providing insights into the dynamics shaping the upcoming congressional race in Colorado’s 4th district.