Who saw this coming?
According to a recent poll conducted by Harvard CAPS–Harris, it appears that Donald Trump’s popularity among young adults surpasses that of any other age group. The survey, which gathered responses from over 2,000 registered voters, revealed that 57 percent of respondents approved of the job Trump did as president, while 41 percent expressed disapproval.
Delving deeper into the data, it becomes evident that a significant majority—nearly two-thirds, to be precise (64 percent)—of Generation Z voters, aged 18 to 24, gave their approval to Trump’s presidential performance. This statistic is noteworthy considering that some individuals within this demographic were merely children during Trump’s tenure from 2017 to 2021.
The implications of these findings could serve as a cautionary tale for President Joe Biden’s potential reelection bid. In the 2020 election, the support of young voters played a pivotal role in Biden’s victory, with both Generation Z and millennials favoring him over Trump by roughly 20 percentage points, as per analysis by the Pew Research Center.
Interestingly, the survey also identified the age group with the second-highest approval rating for Trump’s presidency: respondents aged 55 to 64, with 60 percent expressing approval. This was followed closely by individuals aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44, both at 58 percent approval.
Another poll released by Axios-Generation Lab on Monday indicated that Biden holds only a slight edge over Trump among voters aged 18 to 34, with 52 percent favoring Biden and 48 percent Trump. Neil O’Brian, a political scientist at the University of Oregon, cautioned against assuming continued youth allegiance to the Democratic Party, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding this trend.
In a head-to-head comparison, Trump emerges as the frontrunner against Biden in the Harvard CAPS–Harris survey, leading by six points (48 percent to 42 percent). Even with the introduction of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who garners 15 percent support, Trump maintains a seven-point lead (42 percent to 35 percent).
Furthermore, Trump’s lead extends to nine points (42 percent to 33 percent) when considering a five-person presidential shortlist that includes independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Despite Trump’s lead, a majority of registered voters (56 percent) believe he has committed a crime, with 54 percent viewing the criminal investigations against him as politically motivated—an assertion frequently echoed by the former president himself.
The poll also highlights that over half of voters (54 percent) believe Trump engaged in insurrection against the U.S. government during his presidency. Trump faces federal charges related to the events leading up to the January 6 attack and the alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.
The Supreme Court’s forthcoming ruling on whether Trump can be disqualified from future election ballots for violating Section 3 of the 14th Amendment adds another layer of complexity to the political landscape.
Conducted online on February 21 and 22 among 2,022 registered voters, the Harvard CAPS–Harris survey offers valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of American politics, particularly concerning the enduring influence of former President Donald Trump.