Newsom Loses Grip Of California

Governor Gavin Newsom of California is currently experiencing a significant decline in polling and approval ratings. Once enjoying a robust 64% approval rating three years ago, Newsom now finds his approval reduced to around 44%. Californians’ approval of the state legislature stands at 40%, with only a slight increase to 41% when considering their own specific legislators. This trend remains consistent even when adjusted for likely voters.

Historically, California governors face a downturn in approval ratings as their terms near an end. This pattern is common among governors of large states who often attract national attention and aim for higher political ambitions. For instance, former Governor Jerry Brown, also a Democrat, saw high early support but his popularity waned due to unsuccessful presidential bids and other political missteps, culminating in a rejected Senate run in 1982. Brown’s father, Pat Brown, experienced a similar decline, losing his bid for a third term to Ronald Reagan in 1966.

Newsom’s struggles are compounded by widespread dissatisfaction with the state’s direction. A survey by the Public Policy Institute of California revealed that nearly 70% of residents anticipate economic hardship in the coming year, a sentiment that has remained steady over the past few years. Rising crime rates, inflation, and unmet campaign promises from 2018 have further eroded Newsom’s standing.

Economic concerns dominate across party lines, with a significant portion of Californians citing cost of living, economic issues, and inflation as their primary worries. Housing costs are a particular concern, especially among Democrats (22%) and independents (20%), compared to Republicans (11%). California’s cost of living is notably high, being 38% above the national average, with housing costs nearly doubling the national figure at 97% higher and utilities 22% higher.

These challenges pose a threat to Newsom’s potential presidential ambitions. Speculated to be a contender for the Democratic nomination, possibly running against Vice President Kamala Harris after President Biden’s tenure, Newsom must grapple with his state’s dissatisfaction. Rising Democratic figures like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could overshadow him. With his current governance under scrutiny, questions arise about his ability to effectively lead the nation if he struggles to maintain approval in California.