Who saw this coming?
In a recent survey conducted by NPR/PBS News/Marist College, the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appears to be at a deadlock nationally, with each candidate securing 49% of the vote, leaving only a meager 2% of voters undecided. However, a notable shift has occurred among independent voters, tipping the scales slightly in Biden’s favor, with 50% supporting him compared to 48% for Trump. This represents a significant turnaround from the previous poll conducted in May, where Biden trailed Trump among independents by a margin of 54% to 42%.
Despite Biden’s lead among independents, Trump has managed to gain ground overall since May, with the former president now slightly ahead with 48% compared to Biden’s 41% among those who hold an unfavorable view of both candidates. Additionally, among voters who express a definite intention to cast their ballots in November, Trump leads Biden by a narrow margin of 50% to 49%.
One plausible explanation for Biden’s improved standing among independents could be attributed to recent developments concerning Trump’s conviction in his Manhattan hush money case. The survey indicates that a majority of respondents, accounting for 51%, believe that Trump should either definitely or probably serve time in prison as a consequence of his conviction, with 31% firmly advocating for his imprisonment. Notably, independents are aligned with this sentiment, with 51% expressing the belief that Trump deserves to be incarcerated.
Regarding the issues that weigh heavily on voters’ minds, Trump appears to fare better on two out of the top three concerns cited. Inflation ranks as the primary concern for 30% of respondents, followed closely by 29% who prioritize the preservation of democracy, and 18% who view immigration as the most pressing issue.
Overall, while the national race remains deadlocked, Biden’s slight edge among independents and Trump’s resonance on certain key issues underscore the intricate dynamics shaping the upcoming election landscape.