Democrats Get Stronger In The Senate?

In the ongoing battle for control of the Senate, Democrats received a boost in the closely watched Arizona Senate race, according to the latest analysis by the Cook Political Report. The nonpartisan election forecaster adjusted its prediction, shifting the race from a “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” This alteration in forecast primarily hinges on the perceived quality of the Republican frontrunner, Kari Lake, who is challenging Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego for the seat being vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema.

The dynamics of this race have captured attention, with Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report noting that Arizona remains a pivotal state, especially given Lake’s candidacy. Lake, a former gubernatorial candidate and a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, has garnered support from Senate Republicans. However, concerns persist within the GOP regarding her electability, particularly in light of past assertions regarding electoral fraud in elections involving her and Trump.

Despite the competitiveness of the race, Gallego maintains a slight advantage in recent polling. Nonetheless, the margin of error underscores the unpredictability of the contest. Gallego has launched a substantial $19 million advertising campaign in Arizona, complemented by a $23 million boost from a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. On the other side, Lake is also investing significantly in advertising, with a campaign worth $10 million.

The shifting dynamics in Arizona are critical in the broader context of Senate control. With just three states remaining in the “toss-up” column – Montana, Ohio, and Nevada – and West Virginia’s open seat expected to favor Republicans, the GOP needs to flip only one more seat to secure the Senate majority, particularly if Trump prevails in the presidential race. The Cook Political Report anticipates seven competitive races involving Democratic incumbents, with the GOP likely to secure one to four of these seats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another respected election forecaster, also rates the Arizona Senate race as “lean Democrat,” aligning with the Cook Political Report’s assessment. As the race intensifies, both parties are poised for a fierce battle for control of the Senate, with Arizona emerging as a crucial battleground.