Can Trump find his way to the finish line?
In the ongoing Republican primary race, the dynamics have shifted with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie suspending his campaign, seen as a significant boost for Nikki Haley. A recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll indicated that 65 percent of Christie’s supporters would turn to Haley in his absence. However, the landscape could change if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once considered Trump’s primary adversary, decides to exit the race, potentially reshaping the contest.
Despite being a formidable competitor to Trump, DeSantis is grappling with stagnant support for his presidential bid. If he withdraws, the GOP primary could transform into a direct face-off between Trump and Haley, with indications suggesting that Trump stands to gain the most from such a scenario.
DeSantis has emphasized the pivotal role of winning Iowa’s caucuses, underscoring the significance of on-the-ground support over polling numbers. His extensive efforts in Iowa include campaigning in all 99 counties and securing endorsements from influential figures. However, his success in Iowa is crucial for sustaining his campaign, as political consultant Jay Townsend notes that without a strong showing, DeSantis might face a fate similar to Christie’s.
As of now, Trump leads in Iowa with 53.3 percent support, followed by Haley at 18 percent, and DeSantis at 15 percent. The pressure on DeSantis to perform well in Iowa is evident, and speculation about his potential withdrawal has emerged, despite his campaign asserting a commitment to the “long haul.”
If DeSantis were to exit the race, polls and experts suggest a significant advantage for Trump. Iowa polls indicate that 43 percent of DeSantis supporters would back Haley, while only 29 percent would shift to Trump. In New Hampshire, 35 percent of DeSantis supporters would choose Trump, compared to 32 percent for Haley.
On a national scale, Trump appears to have a more substantial appeal among DeSantis supporters, with polls showing Trump gaining 48 percent compared to Haley’s 27 percent. Republican strategists argue that the more conservative populist nature of DeSantis supporters aligns with Trump’s base, making him the natural recipient of their support.
While a DeSantis withdrawal could position Haley as the “clear alternative choice” in the primaries, allowing her to go head-to-head with Trump, strategists note that Trump’s continued attacks and reluctance to debate may become increasingly challenging as Haley garners support among a significant portion of the Republican electorate.