This was unexpected.
To gain insight into Mike Pence’s belief in his chances of winning the presidency, one must examine a framed parchment Bible verse that has adorned his fireplace for over two decades. The verse, a gift from his wife, declares the Lord’s plans to bring prosperity, hope, and a future to individuals. These plans, both spiritual and political, are now taking shape as Pence officially launches his presidential campaign, despite being a long shot candidate seeking to wrest the nomination from the man who appointed him vice president, Donald Trump, who later incited a mob calling for Pence’s execution.
Pence and his team maintain that there is a viable path to victory, albeit one that requires a belief in the supernatural to some degree. However, Pence faces significant challenges as he trails behind Trump and lags by double digits behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, despite his advantage of a vast donor network and name recognition as a former vice president. Moreover, Pence faces the hurdle of higher negatives compared to his competitors, a consequence of not obeying Trump’s directives on the fateful day of January 6, 2021.
While Pence received a standing ovation for acknowledging his duty on January 6 during a speech at the Herbert Institute for Public Policy, he has also faced open heckling from Trump’s supporters on at least two occasions for his refusal to overturn the 2020 election results. One incident occurred at a National Rifle Association convention in his own backyard. Nevertheless, Pence remains undeterred, announcing his campaign and planning a trip to New Hampshire, where he enters a primary race where his rivals see him as such a minor threat that they have yet to directly criticize him by name.
In his campaign announcement speech, Pence emphasized his choice to prioritize the Constitution over Trump’s demands on January 6. Marc Short, Pence’s longtime confidant, was visibly moved as Pence spoke about that event, and he stated that the campaign would not rely heavily on polling. Short and other steadfast supporters of Pence believe that the race is more open than conventional wisdom suggests, citing his reliance on personal introspection, discussions with his wife, and seeking guidance from the Bible to determine if this path aligns with God’s will.
During a speech at the Future Farmers of America Enrichment Center, Pence positioned himself as a pre-Trump conservative, highlighting his conservative stance on various issues such as foreign policy and abortion rights. He contrasted his commitment to conservative governance with Trump’s current lack of such promises. Pence prided himself on being in tune with the conservative movement even before the rise of the Tea Party and had been a vocal critic of figures like George W. Bush and John Boehner. Eventually, Trump selected him as his running mate in 2016, sparing Pence a challenging reelection campaign.
Pence’s team hopes that he will emerge from the campaign as a cheerful warrior who can celebrate the policy victories of the Trump era without the divisive rhetoric, appealing to grassroots voters more effectively than the top two candidates. They plan for Pence to visit all 99 counties in Iowa at least once, believing this will help him connect with voters. However, relying on hope alone to sustain a candidacy is a considerable gamble.
While Pence may receive a warm reception from socially conservative, Christian-oriented political groups such as the Faith and Freedom Coalition or the Family Leader, there are concerns that his perceived disloyalty to Trump and the belief that he could have done more may hinder his chances. David Kochel, a seasoned Iowa GOP strategist, suggests that Pence’s ceiling may be limited due to these factors. Nonetheless, Pence has the potential to make a strong showing among certain blocs of voters in Northwest Iowa and elsewhere, even if winning the Iowa caucuses seems unlikely.